Quantitative methods and analysis submission 2

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In Unit 2, you have learned about three different types of distributions: Normal, binomial, and Poisson. You can take data that you collect and plot it out onto graphs to see a visual representation of the data.  By simply looking at data on a graph, you can tell a lot about how related your observed data are and if they fit into a normal distribution.

For this submission, you will be given a series of scenarios and small collections of data. You should plot the data or calculate probabilities using excel. Then, you will create your own real or hypothetical scenario to graph and explain.

Answer the following:

  • The mean temperature for the month of July in Boston, Massachusetts is 73 degrees Fahrenheit. Plot the following data, which represent the observed mean temperature in Boston over the last 20 years:   
      1998 72  1999 69  2000 78  2001 70  2002 67  2003 74  2004 73  2005 65  2006 77  2007 71  2008 75  2009 68  2010 72  2011 77  2012 65  2013 79  2014 77  2015 78  2016 72  2017 74

     

    1. Is this a normal distribution? Explain your reasoning.  
    2. What is an outlier? Are there any outliers in this distribution? Explain your reasoning fully.  
    3. Using the above data, what is the probability that the mean will be over 76 in any given July?   
    4. Using the above data, what is the probability that the mean will be over 80 in any given July?
  • A heatwave is defined as 3 or more days in a row with a high temperature over 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Given the following high temperatures recorded over a period of 20 days, what is the probability that there will be a heatwave in the next 10 days?
     
      Day 1 93  Day 2 88  Day 3 91  Day 4 86  Day 5 92  Day 6 91  Day 7 90  Day 8 88  Day 9 85  Day 10 91  Day 11 84  Day 12 86  Day 13 85  Day 14 90  Day 15 92  Day 16 89  Day 17 88  Day 18 90  Day 19 88  Day 20 90

Customer surveys reveal that 40% of customers purchase products online versus in the physical store location.  Suppose that this business makes 12 sales in a given day 

Does this situation fit the parameters for a binomial distribution? Explain why or why not?  
Find the probability of the 12 sales on a given day exactly 4 are made online  
Find the probability of the 12 sales fewer than 6 are made online  
Find the probability of the 12 sales more than 8 are made online

Your own example:

  • Choose a company that you have recently seen in the news because it is having some sort of problem or scandal, and complete the following:  
    • Discuss the situation, and describe how the company could use distributions and probability statistics to learn more about how the scandal could affect its business.   
    • If you were a business analyst for the company, what research would you want to do, and what kind of data would you want to collect to create a distribution?  
    • Would this be a standard, binomial, or Poisson distribution?  Why?  
    • List and discuss at least 3 questions that you would want to create probabilities for (e.g.,What is the chance that the company loses 10% of its customers in the next year?).   
    • What would you hope to learn from calculating these probabilities?  
    • Assuming that upper management does not see the value in expending the time and money necessary to collect data to analyze, make an argument (at least 100 words) convincing them that the expenditure is necessary and explaining some dangers the company could face by not knowing what the data predict. 

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