Devry university-supply chain decision tools week 1 homework

Homework

Complete the following problems from Chapter 4 in your textbook. The Homework Problems grading rubric is posted in Doc Sharing—refer to the Homework Problems Rubric document.

Chapter 4 Problems

Problem 4.2 a, b, and c

Problem 4.6 a, b, and c

Problem 4.9 a, b, c, and d

  • a)Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?
  • b)Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data.
  • c)Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.
  • d)As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results? 

 

 4.6

The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows:

MONTH

SALES

January

20

February

21

March

15

April

14

May

13

June

16

July

17

August

18

September

20

October

20

November

21

December

23

  • a)Plot the monthly sales data.
  • b)Forecast January sales using each of the following:
    • i)Naive method.
    • ii)A 3-month moving average.
    • iii)A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months.
    • iv)Exponential smoothing using an α = .3 and a September forecast of 18.
    • v)A trend projection.
  • c)With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March’s sales? 

 

•• 4.9

Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the past 12 months were as follows:

MONTH

PRICE PERCHIP

MONTH

PRICE PERCHIP

January

$1.80  

July

1.80

February

1.67

August

1.83

March

1.70

September

1.70

April

1.85

October

1.65

May

1.90

November

1.70

June

1.87

December

1.75

  • a)Use a 2-month moving average on all the data and plot the averages and the prices.
  • b)Use a 3-month moving average and add the 3-month plot to the graph created in part (a).
  • c)Which is better (using the mean absolute deviation): the 2-month average or the 3-month average?
  • d)Compute the forecasts for each month using exponential smoothing, with an initial forecast for January of $1.80. Use α = .1, then α = .3, and finally α = .5. Using MAD, which a is the best? 

 

 

 

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